Snow Day Predictor Canada

How accurate is the Snow Day Predictor Canada?

Our forecast looks at the same overnight weather conditions Canadian school boards evaluate before they make the morning call — snowfall, blowing snow, freezing rain, wind chill, and active Environment Canada warnings — and adjusts for the closure patterns documented in your region. We benchmark predictions against actual historical closures every winter; on typical mid-winter storm events the forecast lands within 10 percentage points of the eventual outcome. We always cap output at 95% to avoid false certainty.

Which Canadian provinces does the predictor support?

All ten provinces and three territories — including separate handling for coastal vs interior British Columbia and for the Greater Toronto Area vs rural and Northern Ontario, since their school boards behave very differently in the same weather. Type any Canadian postal code or city to see the forecast for your specific region.

What weather data sources does the snow day predictor use?

Our forecast engine queries multiple weather models in parallel — including the Canadian Meteorological Centre’s GEM model — and cross-checks them before issuing a school day probability. Postal-code geocoding covers every Canadian Forward Sortation Area. We do not store your queries, and the entire prediction runs in your browser.

Why is the bus cancellation probability higher than the school closure probability?

In Canada, student transportation services (buses) cancel substantially more often than schools fully close. The Toronto District School Board, for example, almost never closes buildings but cancels buses several times each winter. We multiply the school-closure probability by 1.35 (capped at 97%) to reflect this consistent gap.

Why does the predictor say my probability is low when there is a big storm forecast?

Three common reasons: the storm hits during the day rather than overnight (boards have already opened, so closures are rare), the snow falls before midnight and roads are cleared by morning, or your region simply tolerates more snow than most of Canada (Alberta and the Prairies routinely operate through 25+ cm). Scroll to the weather conditions panel to see exactly what is forecast overnight for your city.

When are Canadian school closures usually announced?

Most boards make the call between 5:30 am and 6:30 am the day of, based on the overnight forecast. A small number — including Halton, Durham, and several Quebec service centres — sometimes announce the night before for confirmed major storms. Our predictor targets the 8 pm to 8 am overnight window because that is what boards actually evaluate.

Does the algorithm work for weekends and holidays?

It short-circuits: weekends, summer break (July–August), the late-December to early-January winter break, and all statutory holidays return a “no school” result instead of a probability. There is no point predicting closures for days schools are already closed.

How is this different from other snow day predictors?

Most older predictors return a single percentage from a single weather field — usually just “chance of snow.” Ours weighs the full set of overnight conditions schools actually care about (snow, wind, ice, wind chill, official warnings), splits the output into school closure and bus cancellation, and reflects the closure patterns of your specific Canadian region. You also get the underlying weather conditions for your city so you can judge the forecast for yourself.