CirclFi

How do thirteen valuation models become one fair value?

Each valuation model attacks the same company from a different angle — discounted cash flow, relative, scenario, option-based. The CUCE ensemble then weights all twelve outputs by correlation-unbiased certainty equivalence to produce the consensus intrinsic value in the middle of the dial. Where the models disagree most is where the market is most likely mispricing the stock.

How does CirclFi turn SEC filings into a fair value?

01Ingest & scanEvery trading day the engine pulls SEC EDGAR filings, XBRL financials, market data and FRED macro series for 5,856+ equities. No human in the loop. 02Compute & valueEach stock runs thirteen independent models — Bayesian DCF over projected free cash flow, Monte Carlo, Markov chains and ensemble meta-models — producing confidence-weighted fair values. 03Signal & actThe live terminal opens.

What research is the valuation engine built on?

IV — FOUNDATIONS NOBEL 1997Merton–Black–ScholesOur PWERM model uses Robert Merton's structural credit framework — Nobel Prize, 1997 — to value equity as a call option on firm assets.