Coldtell

Does the science actually work?

5 bets These look alike on purpose: each asks whether one specific technology or biology really delivers. The line inside each card says what makes it different from its neighbours. Liver scarring becomes treatable Advanced scarring from fatty-liver disease has no approved treatment today. Three drugs are in late-stage trials to change that.

Does the bottleneck bite?

2 bets A physical supply limit that money cannot relax on the timescale that matters. The transformer wall AI data centres are being held up not by chips, and not by making electricity, but by the unglamorous kit that moves power around: transformers, switchgear and grid connections.

Is it already in the price?

3 bets The fact may be well known. The question is whether the market has priced it in yet. Japan’s 30-year yield breaks 4.5% Japan carries a large public-debt burden after decades of very low borrowing costs. This asks whether the 30-year government-bond yield closes above 4.5% by 2030.