Ed Conard

Are governments facing a permanent shift toward higher borrowing costs?

Core argument: Rising long-term yields are a G10-wide phenomenon, not a U.S.-specific problem, reflecting the fiscal deterioration that followed pandemic-era debt accumulation across advanced economies.The chart shows 10y10y forward yields across key G10 economies. The US doesn’t even stand out in this perspective.

Are companies spending on AI seeing returns on their investments?

The S&P 493 is spending heavily on AI, but it is not showing up in profit margins. Looking at the individual sectors of the S&P 500 outside tech shows that the picture is flat, cyclical, or worse.

Does AI infrastructure profitability depend on funding downstream losses?

In business, profit margins are frequently higher for the owner of the end-customer relationship. But that is not the case for AI. In AI, profit margins are higher the further you get from the end user. This is important because it means the AI boom's profits are currently being funded by investors rather than earned from customers.

Is Japan a Debt or a Currency Crisis?

— Japanese government bond yields spike when fiscal austerity is loosened, signaling that markets treat Japan's currency weakness as a fiscal credibility problem rather than a routine reflation trade.Yen Intervention = US Self-Preservation — Japan holds $1tn in U.S. government bonds — the largest foreign position globally — giving the U.S.

Is artificial intelligence infrastructure growing unsustainably fast?

Core argument: Data-center capex is accelerating at ~0.85 percentage points of GDP per year—nearly twice the housing boom’s peak pace of 0.5 points per year and roughly six times the telecom fiber cycle’s rate.In level, the ongoing data-center buildout sits between the fiber and housing cycles: more than twice the fiber peak, less than half the housing peak.