Polar Bear Projections

What does the rest of the contract look like?

Cumulative wins (WAR) against the $155M bar. The filled dot is what he has actually banked. Everything else is a forecast.This site15.6Break-even14.5ZiPS10.6Median comparable hitter7.85Banked so far, measured3.8Middle half of comps, at 203012.7 to 21.6

Who chose well?

The site’s second published answer, judged from each club’s own side. Both figures are fair value minus what the club actually put up, so the sign is the subtraction and the colour is the judgement.BALBaltimorechose to payFAIR VALUE+$8.2M$163.2M fair value against the $155M guaranteed, so in the club’s favour.Baltimore's side has not moved.

Is he on pace?

The scorecard above reads six rates. This reads the scoreboard. As of 22 August 2026, after 129 of the club’s 162 games with 33 still to play, he had banked 3.8 wins. Carried across a full season that is a pace of 4.77: ahead of the 3.6 ZiPS had for his age-31 season at signing, and ahead of the 2.95 the median comparable hitter actually produced at the same age.Banked is measured.

What would change this?

The verdict is a published rule, not a judgment, so it can be shown wrong. These are the readings that would do it, named in advance and in each signal’s own units.No single signal slipping one band changes the answer.

How many of them were worth it?

The Orioles guaranteed $155M for ages 31 to 35. Every hitter the inclusion rule admits has already played those five years, so the question can be asked backwards: price what each of them actually produced at this contract’s own cost of a win, and count how many were worth it.47of 164 Worth $155M or more. Worth less.That is 29 percent, so break-even sits at the 71st percentile, about 14.5 wins across the five years.