Macro Roundup

Why has shipping capacity to America not regained its prior utilization?

Core argument: The U.S.-bound shipping network converted about 89% of potential fleet capacity into effective service in 2016–2019, but aggregate utilization fell below 70% in 2021–2022 as ships waited at anchor, steamed slowly, or sailed around maritime bottlenecks.In 2016–2019, the U.S.-bound shipping network turned about 89% of the fleet’s potential capacity into effective service [Figure 3.5].

What drove the upward revision to second-quarter GDP growth?

Core argument: U.S. real GDP growth in Q2 was revised up 0.7pp to +2.2% quarter-over-quarter annualized, led by upward revisions to consumption (+0.4pp to +3.8%) and investment (+1.9pp to +4.6%).Real GDP was revised up by 0.7pp to +2.2% in Q2 (quarter-over-quarter annualized), largely reflecting upward revisions to consumption (+0.4pp to +3.8%) and investment (+1.9pp to +4.6%) growth.

How Much Revenue Does The AI Buildout Need In 2030?

AI Summary. The authors estimate AI capital spending of $560bn in 2026 and, in a high-investment case, $3.5tn of net AI capital in service by 2030, requiring roughly $1.3tn in annual infrastructure revenue once depreciation, operating costs and a 15% return are covered. That implies 7.4x growth from current annualized revenues, with downstream revenues of $1.9–2.6tn.

How much annual revenue must AI infrastructure generate to justify investment?

Core argument: In a high investment case with $3.5tn of net AI capital in service, the authors estimate AI infrastructure must generate $1.3tn of annual revenue by 2030, requiring 7.4x growth (59% CAGR) from today’s annualized revenues.We estimate AI CapEx to be $560B in 2026, 64% of the total declared by the hyperscalers.

Are long-term Treasury yields reaching their highest levels in decades?

Core argument: The 10-year US Treasury yield briefly traded at 5.34% on Thursday, rising above its 2007 peak to its highest level since 2002.The US benchmark yield touched its highest level since 2002, the latest milestone in a monthslong selloff in global sovereign debt.