Subjective Probability

Topic: Which firms will survive the pandemic within an industry?

Bio: Professor of Economics University Questions: There is substantial variance in returns on capital within industries.

Topic: What are the implications for the Middle Class after the Pandemic?

Bio: Author on global, economic, political and social trends. Questions The global middle class was in trouble before Covid, what does this mean now?Under stress, firms are much more aware of which employees are productive and who are expendable.

What do other coronaviruses tell us about immunity?

On a different topic, this MIT Technology Review article (paywall, but three free articles per month with registration) worried me. Apparently, for a number of common coronaviruses that cause colds, immunity is only partial and quite short-lived.

Topic: What can pathology teach us about Covid19?

Bio: Leading forensic pathologist in the US; prolific author 1. In 1918, the medical community did not understand what killed the Spanish Flu victims, and it was the pathologists who were able to provide an explanation. 2.

Topic: How can we make good estimates of the parameters of the epidemic?

Bio: Retired statistician from major pharma company; author. Questions: We are throwing the kitchen sink at the virus, how can we tease out what is working when we are using so many different combinations of treatments?Is the medical community keeping track of what treatments that we are using, and also aware of what morbidities the patients have?The hospitals are chaotic, can we be sure that record keeping is.