The Right Side of Wrong: Bayes' Theorem in Action

🎲 What Is Bayesian Thinking?

Imagine you're guessing who stole a cookie. You might first guess your little brother (because he does it often), but then you see your dad has chocolate on his shirt! That's a clue. So you update your guess. Bayesian thinking works like this: Start with what you think is likely (prior belief) Get a new clue (evidence) Update your belief based on how well each explanation fits the clue

4. What Happens When We Add It All Up?

Adjust how strongly the evidence supports each scenario. The sliders let you weigh different pieces of evidence: How to interpret the weights: ⓘ 0–1×: Weak evidence 5–7×: Strong evidence 10×: Very strong/conclusive Values in between represent varying degrees of support 💡 Tip: Play with the sliders and priors to see how your beliefs change!

🎯 What Should the Jury Think?

The jury isn't being asked, "Did Karen do it?" They're being asked: "Are you sure—beyond a reasonable doubt—that she did?" Bayesian answer: No. Even if H1 is possible, it's the least supported explanation. H2 and H3 together account for 90% of the likely explanations.